Title: Construction Material Industry Composite Index Dips in September
The results of the Construction Materials Industry Composite Index for September 2024 have been released. The Composite Index decreased by 0.05 points compared to the previous month, dropping to 67.14 points. The Activity Index rose by 0.4 points to 140.9 points, while the Confidence Index remained unchanged at 30.03 points. The Expectation Index continued to decline slightly, falling by 0.4 points to 53.6 points.
According to the report, the Construction Materials Industry Composite Index saw a limited decrease in September. Despite being in the high season, activities remained weak during the month, with no positive seasonal impact observed this year. The domestic market experienced more significant contractions, while the stagnation persisted in export markets.
The report noted a 0.05-point decline in the Composite Index, following a post-local election increase in July, marking two consecutive months of decline. The index's trend is expected to be shaped significantly by economic policies and developments in export markets moving forward, with recovery delayed.
The Activity Index registered a 0.4-point increase in September, reaching 140.9 points. Despite this, it remained weak during the year's peak months. The report highlighted that the tight economic policies continued to slow down the domestic market, with global market stagnation also noted.
Domestic sales showed a minimal increase compared to the previous month, limited by tight economic policies that curbed internal demand. Exports witnessed a limited rise as focus shifted towards external markets due to domestic contraction.
The report observed a slight increase in production and a limited rise in revenues, with overseas sales prices increasing modestly. However, tightening policies, seasonal factors, and changes in export markets heavily influenced industry activities. The slowdown in the domestic market is expected to persist, while the anticipated recovery in export markets is delayed.
The Confidence Index remained unchanged at 30.03 points. The slowdown in the domestic market and resulting weak activities negatively impacted confidence. Economic tightening policies and difficulties in accessing finance were emphasized, along with increased pressure on distributors wanting to operate with minimal inventory. The report indicated confidence remains weak and fragile.
In September, construction sector confidence saw a slight decline. While domestic market confidence stayed the same, confidence in export markets increased marginally.
The report pointed out that many factors continue to influence the Confidence Index. The lack of positive seasonal contributions and the dominant impact of restrictive economic policies on confidence were highlighted. Geopolitical developments also acted as limiting factors, with delayed recovery in export markets restraining confidence.
The Expectation Index declined slightly, falling by 0.4 points to 53.6 points, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline. The report showed no positive seasonal contribution in September, with expectations for production, investment, and employment dropping significantly due to tightening economic policies. The Employment Expectation Index fell by 13.5 points over the last six months.
Domestic orders weakened, limiting expectations. Tightening policies and postponed recovery in export markets negatively affected future expectations. Expectations for production, investment, and particularly employment saw noticeable decreases over the past four months.
Expectations for the Turkish economy slightly increased in September. The stability of economic management and programs provided support for expectations. However, there was a slight decline in domestic orders for the next three months, while export orders also decreased slightly. Predictions point to a continuous decline in future expectations for production, investment, and especially employment.
The report identifies economic policies and their results as the key factors shaping expectations in the coming months. Tightening measures are expected to slow internal demand in the construction materials market. With the postponed recovery in export markets, expectations are predicted to remain stable in the year's final quarter.