Market Overview: Iron Ore Falls Amid Easing Global Steel Outlook and Chinese Growth Forecasts

Iron ore futures declined as investors weighed the weak outlook for the global steel market and softer forecasts for China's economic recovery against recent stimulus measures by the largest consumer. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the January iron ore contract ended morning trade down by 0.2% at 759.0 yuan per ton ($106.46). Benchmark November iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.06% at $100.55 per ton at 06:30 GMT. According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production fell by 4.7% in September compared to the previous year, dropping to 143.6 million tons, while China's production decreased by 6.1% to 77.1 million tons. In a separate note, the association stated, "We are making significant downward revisions to our 2024 steel demand outlook for most major economies, reflecting ongoing global economic headwinds and persistent weakness in production." The association expects China to account for less than half of global steel consumption in 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas remarked that Beijing's recent stimulus measures are unlikely to meaningfully boost domestic demand or resolve a significant source of trade friction. Analysts noted an increase in sentiment in the iron ore market following new stimulus measures announced last Friday, but they observed no substantial change in the fundamentals as the policies have yet to show visible benefits and the outlook for demand improvement remains weak. On the DCE, coking coal and coke fell by 0.7% and 0.83%, respectively. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar rose by 0.06%, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.14%, wire rod fell by 0.48%, and stainless steel declined by 1.17%.