South Africa's Central Bank Cuts Repo Rate to 7.75%
PRETORIA - The Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Lesetja Kganyago, announced that the repo rate has been decreased by 25 basis points to 7.75%, effective from November 22, 2024. This decision, made unanimously by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), comes in a complex global economic environment characterized by a strengthening dollar, rising interest rates, and new inflationary pressures.
The MPC noted that South Africa's growth recovery is gaining momentum, with positive indicators such as a decline in unemployment and potential support from the newly implemented Two-Pot retirement system. Despite mixed data outcomes and sluggish manufacturing figures, the mining sector has performed strongly, and employment growth was broad-based. The committee projects that growth will reach 2% by 2027.
Consumer price inflation in South Africa fell to 2.8% in October, below the target range. This has been attributed to a stronger exchange rate compared to last year and lower oil prices. Inflation is expected to remain below 4% until mid-2025, followed by a modest increase due to rising electricity prices.
The MPC anticipates that inflation expectations will continue to moderate towards the midpoint target throughout the forecast period. Risks to the inflation outlook are assessed as balanced, although medium-term uncertainties exist, such as potential increases in food, electricity, water, insurance premiums, and wage agreements.
The committee's decision to lower the policy rate is consistent with the goal of achieving the inflation target while maintaining a cautious approach due to unpredictable global interest rates and recent rand depreciation. Although further easing of interest rates is anticipated, the MPC emphasizes that future decisions will be data-dependent and made on a case-by-case basis, considering the balance of risks.
SARB's commitment to maintaining low and stable inflation remains crucial, especially in the face of external challenges, and is aimed at supporting growth potential while rebuilding the fiscal and monetary policy landscape through structural reforms. The MPC also acknowledged the recent positive credit rating outlooks and the potential of structural reforms to enhance long-term growth prospects.
This announcement follows similar interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in October, and by the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve in November. The MPC's decision is based on a press statement that provides insights into the economic conditions and policy assessments guiding the bank's actions.