Key U.S. Districts to Watch in the Tight Presidential Race
As the United States prepares for election results, a selected group of counties in seven key battleground states is set to provide early indicators on the potential victor of the contentious presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. Analysts from UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Beacon Policy Advisors, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia have identified critical areas that could predict the overall outcome.
In Arizona, Maricopa County, which houses over half of the state’s population, is a significant battleground not only for the presidency but also for the Senate. The county, which closes polls at 9:00 PM ET, has historical importance, with Joe Biden being the first Democrat to win it since 1948. However, election officials have indicated that the final count could take up to 13 days.
In Florida, the party’s margins are narrowing in Miami-Dade County, once a Democratic stronghold, where Biden won by only seven points in 2020. This county may be crucial, especially regarding Harris's performance among Hispanic voters. This year, the state is not seen as a battleground, with Trump leading in polls by almost double digits.
In Georgia, urban counties DeKalb and Gwinnett, which helped Biden win the state in 2020, are being closely monitored. Additionally, Cobb County, which could reflect Harris’s appeal to suburban voters, is also under scrutiny. Polls in Georgia close at 7:00 PM ET, but early voting counting begins at 7:00 AM ET, potentially leading to quicker results.
Michigan’s Saginaw County and Wayne County, which includes Detroit, are also on the radar. Saginaw has predicted the state winner since 2008, and Wayne County is a Democratic stronghold where Biden won decisively in 2020. Polls in Michigan close at 8:00 PM ET, with new policies in place to expedite vote counting.
In Nevada, Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, is vital for Trump to minimize Democratic votes, while Washoe County is another area where Republicans hope to gain ground. Polls in Nevada close at 10:00 PM ET, but voting by mail may delay results.
Wake and Mecklenburg Counties in North Carolina are Democratic strongholds where Harris needs to win by large margins to secure the state. The neighboring suburban Cabarrus County is also a crucial area to watch, with polls closing at 7:30 PM ET.
In Pennsylvania, crucial to Biden in 2020, Erie and Lackawanna Counties are emerging as leading indicators. Erie shifted from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, while Lackawanna shows a trend toward Republicans. Polls in Pennsylvania close at 8:00 PM ET, but early votes cannot be processed before 7:00 AM ET on Election Day.
Finally, Dane County in Wisconsin, which substantially supported Biden in 2020, and Waukesha County, an ex-Republican stronghold, are being monitored. Polls in Wisconsin close at 9:00 PM ET, but there may be delays in results due to Election Day vote processing and late reporting from Milwaukee.
These counties are expected to provide critical insights into the direction of the presidential race as the nation awaits the final results.