FOREX NEWS SURVEY: Economists Expect TCMB to Maintain Interest Rates This Month

Foreks - Foreks News TCMB interest survey has concluded. The median expectation for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in November is that the interest rate will be held at 50.00%. It has been observed that economists have postponed their expectations for interest rate cuts to January, influenced by the CBRT's upward revision of its inflation forecasts. All 19 economists participating in the Foreks News survey expressed the expectation that the interest rate will be kept unchanged. In the survey, the median interest rate forecast from 18 economists regarding the end of 2024 was 50.00%. The maximum expectation for year-end interest rates was 50.00%, while the minimum expectation was 47.50%. In the previous month's survey, the year-end expectation was 48.25%, with a range between 50.00 and 45.00.

• Expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed from December to January. When asked, "Do you expect interest rate cuts in 2024?" six out of 18 economists answered "yes" while 12 answered "no." In response to the question, "Do you expect interest rate hikes in 2024?" all 18 economists answered "no." In last month's Foreks survey, out of 25 economists responding to the interest rate cut question, 14 said "yes" and 11 said "no." Economists predict that the first interest rate decision will occur in January and will be a reduction of 250 basis points. Ten out of 18 economists indicated that the first change will be a reduction of 250 basis points. Regarding the timing of the first interest rate decision change, nine out of the 18 economists surveyed expect it to take place in January 2025, six in December 2024, one in February 2025, and two in March 2025. In the previous survey period, it was also predicted that the first interest decision would take place in December with a 250 basis points reduction. For predictions given by 11 economists for 12 months later, the median forecast was 32.50%, with a maximum expectation of 40.00% and a minimum expectation of 28.00%. The median forecast for the end of 2025 was 30.00%, with an expectation range from 40.00% to 26.00%. In last month’s survey, the expectation was also at 30.00%, with a range from 31.00 to 25.00. The year-end consumer price index (CPI) expectation of 15 analysts was 45.00%. The maximum expectation for CPI was 47.50%, while the minimum was 43.30%. In the previous survey period, the year-end inflation expectation was at 43.60. The year-end prediction range was from 45.00 to 42.00. Economists' CPI expectations for the end of 2025 indicated an increase of 26.80%.
• Economists Expectations Spinn Consultancy Economist Özlem Derici Şengül noted that the CBRT has raised its inflation forecasts, arguing that making interest rate cuts would be wrong for both combating inflation and managing expectations, especially when there is a risk of not meeting even the year-end forecasts. Özlem Derici Şengül stated that, based on all these reasons, she believes that the CBRT will assess the impact of January's hikes at the beginning of February and may start interest rate cuts in March if normalization is seen in February's inflation. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's interest decision will be announced on November 21, Thursday, at 14:00. -TCMB MPC Interest Meeting Schedule 21.11.2024 26.12.2024 23.01.2025 20.02.2025 20.03.2025 -Foreks News TCMB Interest Decision Survey Table Download Link: https://news-files.foreks.com/attachment/1731657126862_FAZTAHMN.xls