China's Exports Surge: Highest Increase in 19 Months

According to statements from the Chinese Customs Administration, China's exports in October recorded the fastest growth in the last 19 months, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations. In October, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year in terms of US dollars, reaching the highest level since March 2023. A Reuters poll indicated that analysts expected exports to rise by 5.2% year-on-year in October.

This increase in exports from China can be attributed to favorable weather conditions that accelerated shipments, price reductions aimed at gaining market share, and contributions from the busy pre-Christmas season. Bruce Pang, JLL's Chief Economist for Greater China, attributed the better-than-expected export figures to these factors in a statement to CNBC.

Trade balance and import figures China's trade balance in October 2024 was recorded at $95.72 billion, significantly surpassing expectations. The previous month's figure was $81.71 billion, while the market expectation was $75.05 billion. On the import side, there was a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in October, exceeding the analysts' forecast of a 1.5% decrease. In September, imports had increased by 0.3%.

These figures present a positive picture for China's foreign trade; the strengthening demand for exported goods and the decline in imports contribute to an increase in trade surplus. The 12.7% year-on-year rise in exports, surpassing expectations, is regarded as a positive development for China's economy.

Developments in trade surplus with the US Customs data shows that China's trade surplus with the US rose slightly from $33.3 billion in September to $33.5 billion in October. In the first 10 months of the year, China's total trade surplus with the US amounted to $291.38 billion.

These trade surplus figures suggest a relatively stable trend in trade relations with the US. According to economists at Capital Economics, high tariffs from the US may pressure China's exports, but the impact on China's GDP is expected to be limited. Nonetheless, the effects of US tariffs could exert pressure on the renminbi and lead to a shift towards protectionist tendencies. However, it is anticipated that major trading economies will continue to reap the benefits of open trade.