Bitfinex Releases Its 129th Alpha Report
Foreks - Bitfinex has published its 129th Alpha Report: Are we witnessing a calm before the storm in the markets?
According to the Bitfinex Alpha Report, Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction after a surge stemming from the "Trump Trade" narrative, leading to a reflection of uncertainty in the options market as a lack of confidence. While expectations of a Republican victory appear positive for Bitcoin, altcoins are seeing significant declines. Despite Bitcoin's resilience since September, these dynamics suggest an exciting period for the crypto market as election day approaches.
The 129th Alpha Report from Bitfinex notes that despite reaching all-time highs recently, Bitcoin has faced a sharp correction; the beginning of this surge is associated with the "Trump Trade" narrative. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential elections have led to a lack of confidence in the Bitcoin options market. While the markets anticipate that a Republican victory would be favorable for Bitcoin, a win for Democrats creates uncertainty. Average betting odds have reduced the likelihood of Trump’s victory from 64.9% to 56%, and the suppression of volatility in the options markets until election day indicates that investors are pulling back. However, an increase in volatility is expected between November 5-8, which could signal either significant market movements or a deeper correction.
Uncertainty prevails in altcoins, with a dominant Bitcoin market share exceeding 60%. Altcoins are experiencing considerable declines when Bitcoin retraces; Ethereum and Solana have dropped by approximately 12% from their recent highs, and Ethereum has decreased by 40% since the rise of the first ETFs. As speculative interest that once supported altcoins dissipates, this appears to have reflected in stable funding rates and diminished overall market sentiment. With Bitcoin attracting most of the capital flow into crypto assets, altcoins are struggling to keep up. Without a new catalyst, near-term recovery expectations look weak. Nevertheless, the resilience Bitcoin has shown since its September low is noteworthy. The current market dynamics suggest that the upcoming weeks could be exciting; the lead-up to election day appears to be an intriguing period for the crypto market.
Elections coincide with a significant period as the U.S. economy shows resilience despite facing two hurricanes and ongoing industrial strikes. Despite modest job losses and downward revisions in labor market data, the unemployment rate stands at a stable 4.1% year-on-year, with wage growth at 4%. Consumer spending and personal income continue to increase; real expenditures are rising while inflationary pressures, especially in the services sector, are being felt. GDP growth in the third quarter remains strong at 2.8%, despite high interest rates constraining housing investments. As inflation is kept under control, the Central Bank is expected to support growth cautiously through interest rate cuts. The robustness of the labor market is guiding the economy towards a steady expansion process, increasing the significance of the upcoming election season.
Recent developments in the cryptocurrency industry reflect regulatory challenges and remarkable growth. Blockchain gaming platform Immutable announced it might initiate potential legal action regarding the IMX token due to the SEC's scrutiny of crypto assets, asserting that IMX is not a security. Tether reported that 120 billion USDT is in circulation, holding $102.5 billion in U.S. Treasury Bonds, and achieving a profit of $2.5 billion in the third quarter. Meanwhile, in Florida, state retirement fund CFO Jimmy Patronis supported expanding an $800 million crypto portfolio as a protection against federal control, highlighting the increasing role of cryptocurrencies in financial systems and policy discussions.