EIA Raises Oil Production Forecasts

Forex - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slightly raised its U.S. and global oil production forecasts.

In its "Short-Term Energy Outlook" report, the EIA stated that U.S. oil production is expected to average 13.23 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, which is approximately 300,000 bpd higher than last year's record of 12.93 million bpd. The agency had previously forecasted U.S. oil production to average 13.22 million bpd this year.

The EIA projects that U.S. oil production will rise to 13.53 million bpd next year, indicating a slight decrease from the October estimate of 13.54 million bpd.

The agency also raised its global oil production forecast for 2024 from 102.5 million bpd to 102.6 million bpd. For next year, it expects global production to be 104.7 million bpd, up from the previous estimate of 104.5 million bpd.

The EIA stated that OPEC+ production cuts should help boost global oil prices from now through the first quarter of next year. However, it also cautioned that group members may be weary of cuts that have been in place for over two years. "While we assess that OPEC+ producers will continue to limit production below recently announced targets in 2025, the potential weakening of the commitment to reduce output among OPEC+ producers poses a downside risk for oil prices," it said.

The agency maintained its 2024 global oil demand forecast at 103.1 million bpd while raising its 2025 forecast from 104.3 million bpd to 104.4 million bpd.

It also revised the average price forecast for Brent crude for 2024 from $80.89 to $80.95, and adjusted the 2025 forecast down from $77.59 to $76.06.